For the Japanese and South Korean governments, today became a very hectic day. I also spent a very busy day. Before heading to Nikkei CNBC studio to appear as a TV guest on North Korean issues, I had to finish the following story very quickly.
I appeared on Nikkei CNBC as Tokyo correspondent for Jane's Defence Weekly. Today became a memorable day for me!
Have a good weekend!
Cheers,
Kosuke
Asia Times Online :: Korea News and Korean Business and Economy, Pyongyang News
Failure will hit Kim hard
By Kosuke Takahashi
TOKYO - North Korea's missile-cum-satellite broke up in the air on Friday morning, so did a beacon of hope for the building of a "strong and prosperous nation".
The news of the failed launch may have shocked Pyongyang, which had for weeks trumpeted the endeavor as a major achievement, but it has brought some comfort to Washington, Tokyo and Seoul. These were among countries that called on North Korea to call off the launch - experts say the Unha-3 carrier's rocket technology could be used to strike the US and other targets with a long-range missile.
In a very rare move, North Korea ate boiled crow. It acknowledged at noon on state television that a satellite launched a few hours earlier from the west coast had failed to enter into orbit, splintering into pieces over the Yellow Sea soon after take-off. "The earth observation satellite failed to enter its preset orbit," the state-run Korean Central News Agency said. "Scientists, technicians and experts are now looking into the cause of the failure."
The failure is a major setback for the young North Korean leader Kim Jong-eun, who aimed to boost his domestic legitimacy and rigidity by launching what the North called an Earth-observation satellite two days ahead of celebrations for the 100th anniversary on Sunday of the birth of founding father Kim Il-sung. Kim Jong-eun's "yes" men and Pyongyang people who were in an enthusiastically festive mood will also be devastated.
"Inviting many foreign media, North Korea has become an object of public ridicule in the world," Masao Okonogi, emeritus professor at Keio University in Tokyo and a noted expert on the affairs of the Korean Peninsula, told Asia Times Online on Friday. "It has acted with arrogance and recklessness more than needed. To recover fallen prestige, it may adopt a more belligerent stance towards other nations."
Okonogi said that since Pyongyang believed the US, Japan and South Korea would now not take North Korea's threats seriously, given the failed rocket launch, it would take the risky step of conducting its third nuclear test.
"North Korea is only further isolating itself by engaging in provocative acts, and is wasting its money on weapons and propaganda displays while the North Korean people go hungry," the US White House said in a statement after the launch. "North Korea's long-standing development of missiles and pursuit of nuclear weapons have not brought it security - and never will."
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on Friday ordered an emergency meeting to condemn the failed launch, but it is unlikely to order immediate new sanctions against the isolated state, although Japan and South Korea are taking tougher stances.
This is because it is believed China will only allow the UNSC to vote on a resolution condemning the launch, but will not back any attempts to impose fresh sanctions against Pyongyang. Experts expect Beijing will do everything in its power to prevent North Korea from being destabilized.
Since the beginning of the Cold War, North Korea had been seen as China's first line of defense and strategic buffer zone vis-a-vis the Western bloc, led by the US. Beijing is also afraid of a refugee flood once public safety gets worse in North Korea.
Hiroyasu Akutsu, a professor and senior fellow at the National Institute for Defense Studies, a Japanese Ministry of Defense (MoD) think-tank, takes a similar view as Okonogi.
"North Korea aims to become a science-and-technology powerhouse as well as a strong and prosperous nation," Akutsu said. "So today's rocket launch failure should be very shocking to them."
Akustu said, depending on how strongly the UNSC) acted against North Korea, led by the lobbying of the US, Japan and South Korea, the risk remained that Pyongyang would continue to resort to missile-firing, nuclear tests and other provocations to demonstrate to the rest of world its military capabilities.
"Kim Jong-eun's new regime is calling for a continuation of songun [military first] politics, so it will continue to pursue its nuclear and missile development programs to boost its national prestige and strengthen the regime's foundations."
North Korea conducted similar long-range Taepodong-2 tests in 2006 and 2009, but with unsuccessful results.
A source close to Japan's defense intelligence said Kim Jong-eun pushed the rocket-firing button on Friday under pressure from the powerful military to coincide with the celebrations for the anniversary of the birth of Kim Il-sung, despite a lack of full preparations for the launch.
Akutsu at Japan's National Institute for Defense Studies also pointed out that among the military power elite is Korean People's Army chief of staff Ri Yong-ho, believed to be one of Kim Jong-eun's closest confidants.
Ri is thought to have been a supervisor of Jong-eun when the young leader studied at the Kim Il Sung Military Academy. His thesis was said to be "Missile Guidance by GPS", according to the Japanese intelligence community.
Among other military officers who pressed the young master of the nation to conduct the launch include Pak To-chun, Ju Kyu-chang and Paek Se-bong. They have been called the "three-man team of missile guidance" by the South Korean intelligence community and were recently promoted to high-ranking generals, despite their previous civilian status.
Japanese experts on North Korea think Kim Jong-eun cannot easily punish them over the launch failure because of his heavy dependence on them in terms of political management and the ruling of the country. Akutsu said they would more likely receive an amnesty thanks to the celebration of the 100th anniversary of Kim Il-sung's birth for Sunday.
Okonogi at Keio University, meanwhile, pointed out that North Korean moderates such as its foreign affairs bureaucrats will gain more power, rather than hardliners in military circles in the wake of the debacle.
Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. Besides Asia Times Online, he also writes for Jane's Defence Weekly as Tokyo correspondent. His twitter is @TakahashiKosuke
(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
Friday, April 13, 2012
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
(My latest story for Asia Times Online): Rocket reaction follows familiar trajectory
Asia Times Online :: Rocket reaction follows familiar trajectory
Rocket reaction follows familiar trajectory
By Kosuke Takahashi
TOKYO - As North Korean leader Kim Jong-eun completes his official ascent to power this week at rare party conferences, Pyongyang will almost certainly go ahead with its launch of what it claims is a satellite but which other countries insist is a ballistic missile.
The United States, Japan and South Korea have all indicated that they will call for United Nations Security Council (UNSC) action if North Korea presses ahead with its launch between April 12 and 16. The United Kingdom and Russia have also demanded that North Korea cancel it, while even ally China has expressed concerns.
Pyongyang says the launch is part of mass celebrations to mark the centenary of the birth of founding father Kim Il-sung, and has warned that despite the mounting international pressure, any interception of the "Earth-observation satellite" Kwangmyongsong-3 would amount to "an act of war".
The same threats were heard during a similar North Korean rocket launch in April 2009, and analysts say that in many aspects, history is repeating itself.
"The current situation seems to be following the same pattern as 2009," Masao Okonogi, emeritus professor at Keio University in Tokyo and a well-noted expert on the affairs of the Korean Peninsula, told Asia Times Online on Wednesday.
A repeat of 2009?
It may be worth while looking a little deeper into related events in 2009.
On April 5 that year, North Korea launched an Unha-2 rocket carrying a satellite called Kwangmyongsong-2; it was a startling early-morning wake-up call to then traveling US President Barack Obama, who was in Prague.
In the following week, the UNSC issued a presidential statement condemning the launch as a violation of UNSC resolution 1718, which was adopted in October 2006 in the aftermath of the North's first nuclear test in the same month. North Korea must not "conduct any further nuclear test or launch of a ballistic missile" wrote resolution 1718, adding that it must "suspend all activities related to its ballistic missile program".
Pyongyang reacted harshly at the time. It declared that the Security Council statement "violently infringed on our republic's sovereignty and gravely defiled our people's dignity" and vowed to not return to six-party talks aimed at the North's scrapping of its nuclear arms program that hadn't - and still haven't - been held since December 2008.
Pyongyang warned that it would "strengthen its self-defensive nuclear deterrent in every way". The North conducted a second nuclear test on May 25, 2009, six weeks after the statement was issued.
North Korea claims the impending launch is of a satellite launch vehicle (SLV) as opposed to a ballistic missile, as it claimed during a similar test in April 2009. But they are effectively the same technology. Even the launch of a SLV would strengthen North Korea's ballistic missile capabilities. For this reason, UNSC resolution 1874 is relevant. Adopted in June 2009, it demands Pyongyang "not conduct any further nuclear test or any launch using ballistic missile technology".
"North Korea is now playing a diplomatic game with two dimensions," Okonogi said.
According to him, Pyongyang's first aim is to develop nuclear and missile programs that boost its negotiating stance against the US. Okonogi says that this is part of a strategic "grand design" to acquire the deterrent capabilities that will ultimately achieve a peace treaty with the US, which includes provisions for the withdrawal of US combat troops from South Korea.
"In this sense, North Korea will no doubt conduct a third nuclear test," Okonogi said.
The second diplomatic game, which Okinogi says is on a smaller scale, deals with the so-called "leap-day deal" on a nuclear moratorium with the US.
After talks between top US and North Korea officials on February 29, the North agreed to stop nuclear tests, uranium enrichment and long-range missile launches, and to allow checks by nuclear inspectors. In return, Washington said it was ready to go ahead with a proposed 240,000 tonne food aid package and that more aid could be agreed to based on continued need.
Okonogi said that with the US presidential election approaching, Pyongyang thinks Washington won't be able to take hardline measures that create yet an additional diplomatic problem to the tensions with Iran over its nuclear program. A third nuclear test by the North would give fresh ammunition to Republican presidential nominee former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and Obama's critics, hurting his chances of re-election.
Kim Jong-eun is likely copying other successful instances of North Korea adopting a belligerent stance towards the US. For example, the George W Bush administration in October 2008 removed North Korea from its list of state sponsors of terrorism even after the Pyongyang's first nuclear test in October 2006.
Pyongyang at that time had resorted to its favorite tactic of brinkmanship to escalate tensions and wring concessions. It said it was working on restarting its nuclear plant and dismissed the prospect of being removed from a US terrorism blacklist in return for a disarmament deal.
The Bush administration, however, was very eager for a rare foreign-policy success in its final months in office and made a series of compromises toward Pyongyang - a similar pattern.
The Obama administration must measure a tougher stance against Pyongyang with concerns of a third nuclear test in coming months. On the other hand, backtracking hands North Korea's young master Kim Jong-eun a diplomatic victory against the US. Once again, the North presents Washington with a thorny dilemma.
China against further UN sanctions
Complicating the issue, analysts say China will veto any UN statement suggesting fresh UNSC sanctions as well as any US attempts to impose additional punitive measures against North Korea following the launch of its Unha-3 rocket.
"If the US, Japan or South Korea ask for additional sanctions, China will oppose them," said Satoru Miyamoto, an expert on North Korean affairs in Japan and an associate professor at Seigakuin University's General Research Institute in Saitama prefecture,
Miyamoto said Beijing would do everything in its power to prevent North Korea from being destabilized, citing neighboring China's geographical and geopolitical closeness to the Hermit Kingdom.
He points out that since 2009, China has opposed UN statements against North Korea to avoid letting the situation deteriorate further for the sake of Beijing, and that Beijing has a vital interest such as the North's alleged March 2010 sinking of South Korean navy corvette Cheonan.
"All sides should respect international law to prevent the worsening of tensions on the peninsula," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Weimin said on April 10.
Beijing is concerned that the launch, which could take place around the time on the centenary of Kim Il-sung's birth, will trigger a new regional crisis, much to Beijing's embarrassment.
Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. Besides Asia Times Online, he also writes for Jane's Defence Weekly as Tokyo correspondent. His twitter is @TakahashiKosuke
(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
Rocket reaction follows familiar trajectory
By Kosuke Takahashi
TOKYO - As North Korean leader Kim Jong-eun completes his official ascent to power this week at rare party conferences, Pyongyang will almost certainly go ahead with its launch of what it claims is a satellite but which other countries insist is a ballistic missile.
The United States, Japan and South Korea have all indicated that they will call for United Nations Security Council (UNSC) action if North Korea presses ahead with its launch between April 12 and 16. The United Kingdom and Russia have also demanded that North Korea cancel it, while even ally China has expressed concerns.
Pyongyang says the launch is part of mass celebrations to mark the centenary of the birth of founding father Kim Il-sung, and has warned that despite the mounting international pressure, any interception of the "Earth-observation satellite" Kwangmyongsong-3 would amount to "an act of war".
"The current situation seems to be following the same pattern as 2009," Masao Okonogi, emeritus professor at Keio University in Tokyo and a well-noted expert on the affairs of the Korean Peninsula, told Asia Times Online on Wednesday.
A repeat of 2009?
It may be worth while looking a little deeper into related events in 2009.
On April 5 that year, North Korea launched an Unha-2 rocket carrying a satellite called Kwangmyongsong-2; it was a startling early-morning wake-up call to then traveling US President Barack Obama, who was in Prague.
In the following week, the UNSC issued a presidential statement condemning the launch as a violation of UNSC resolution 1718, which was adopted in October 2006 in the aftermath of the North's first nuclear test in the same month. North Korea must not "conduct any further nuclear test or launch of a ballistic missile" wrote resolution 1718, adding that it must "suspend all activities related to its ballistic missile program".
Pyongyang reacted harshly at the time. It declared that the Security Council statement "violently infringed on our republic's sovereignty and gravely defiled our people's dignity" and vowed to not return to six-party talks aimed at the North's scrapping of its nuclear arms program that hadn't - and still haven't - been held since December 2008.
Pyongyang warned that it would "strengthen its self-defensive nuclear deterrent in every way". The North conducted a second nuclear test on May 25, 2009, six weeks after the statement was issued.
North Korea claims the impending launch is of a satellite launch vehicle (SLV) as opposed to a ballistic missile, as it claimed during a similar test in April 2009. But they are effectively the same technology. Even the launch of a SLV would strengthen North Korea's ballistic missile capabilities. For this reason, UNSC resolution 1874 is relevant. Adopted in June 2009, it demands Pyongyang "not conduct any further nuclear test or any launch using ballistic missile technology".
"North Korea is now playing a diplomatic game with two dimensions," Okonogi said.
According to him, Pyongyang's first aim is to develop nuclear and missile programs that boost its negotiating stance against the US. Okonogi says that this is part of a strategic "grand design" to acquire the deterrent capabilities that will ultimately achieve a peace treaty with the US, which includes provisions for the withdrawal of US combat troops from South Korea.
"In this sense, North Korea will no doubt conduct a third nuclear test," Okonogi said.
The second diplomatic game, which Okinogi says is on a smaller scale, deals with the so-called "leap-day deal" on a nuclear moratorium with the US.
After talks between top US and North Korea officials on February 29, the North agreed to stop nuclear tests, uranium enrichment and long-range missile launches, and to allow checks by nuclear inspectors. In return, Washington said it was ready to go ahead with a proposed 240,000 tonne food aid package and that more aid could be agreed to based on continued need.
Okonogi said that with the US presidential election approaching, Pyongyang thinks Washington won't be able to take hardline measures that create yet an additional diplomatic problem to the tensions with Iran over its nuclear program. A third nuclear test by the North would give fresh ammunition to Republican presidential nominee former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and Obama's critics, hurting his chances of re-election.
Kim Jong-eun is likely copying other successful instances of North Korea adopting a belligerent stance towards the US. For example, the George W Bush administration in October 2008 removed North Korea from its list of state sponsors of terrorism even after the Pyongyang's first nuclear test in October 2006.
Pyongyang at that time had resorted to its favorite tactic of brinkmanship to escalate tensions and wring concessions. It said it was working on restarting its nuclear plant and dismissed the prospect of being removed from a US terrorism blacklist in return for a disarmament deal.
The Bush administration, however, was very eager for a rare foreign-policy success in its final months in office and made a series of compromises toward Pyongyang - a similar pattern.
The Obama administration must measure a tougher stance against Pyongyang with concerns of a third nuclear test in coming months. On the other hand, backtracking hands North Korea's young master Kim Jong-eun a diplomatic victory against the US. Once again, the North presents Washington with a thorny dilemma.
China against further UN sanctions
Complicating the issue, analysts say China will veto any UN statement suggesting fresh UNSC sanctions as well as any US attempts to impose additional punitive measures against North Korea following the launch of its Unha-3 rocket.
"If the US, Japan or South Korea ask for additional sanctions, China will oppose them," said Satoru Miyamoto, an expert on North Korean affairs in Japan and an associate professor at Seigakuin University's General Research Institute in Saitama prefecture,
Miyamoto said Beijing would do everything in its power to prevent North Korea from being destabilized, citing neighboring China's geographical and geopolitical closeness to the Hermit Kingdom.
He points out that since 2009, China has opposed UN statements against North Korea to avoid letting the situation deteriorate further for the sake of Beijing, and that Beijing has a vital interest such as the North's alleged March 2010 sinking of South Korean navy corvette Cheonan.
"All sides should respect international law to prevent the worsening of tensions on the peninsula," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Weimin said on April 10.
Beijing is concerned that the launch, which could take place around the time on the centenary of Kim Il-sung's birth, will trigger a new regional crisis, much to Beijing's embarrassment.
Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. Besides Asia Times Online, he also writes for Jane's Defence Weekly as Tokyo correspondent. His twitter is @TakahashiKosuke
(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
(My latest for Jane's Defence Weekly) Russia stepping up air surveillance around Japan
| ASIA PACIFIC
Date Posted: 10-Apr-2012
Russia stepping up air surveillance around JapanKosuke TakahashiJDW Correspondent Tokyo Russian Ilyushin Il-38 ('May') aircraft flew over the Sea of Japan on 22 March, 29 March and 6 April, while two Tupolev Tu-142s appeared over the Pacific side of the Japanese archipelago on 27 March, according to the Joint Staff Office of Japan's Ministry of Defence (MoD). On all occasions the Japan Air Self-Defence Force (JASDF) scrambled fighter aircraft such as Mitsubishi F-15Js to intercept the Russian aircraft, it added. Russia also may want to carry out surveillance on the ongoing joint US-South Korean 'Foal Eagle' exercise, which runs from 1 March to 30 April, the official said. To activate Japan's missile defence system and intercept the missile or any debris from North Korea's rocket, the Japan Self-Defence Forces have deployed land-based PAC-3 interceptors to seven locations in the Tokyo metropolitan area as well as on the Okinawa, Ishigaki and Miyako islands in southwestern Japan. In addition, three Kongo-class Aegis-equipped destroyers fitted with Standard SM-3 Block IA missiles, JS Chokai , JS Kirishima and JS Myoko , have been deployed to the East China Sea and the Sea of Japan to track the launch. Japan's NHK TV station reported on 10 April that the US Navy had deployed USS Shiloh , a Ticonderoga-class guided missile cruiser, near Miyako island, while US-based CNN reported that the US had sent the Sea-Based X-band Radar One (SBX-1), its most advanced mobile radar system, from Pearl Harbor to the northeastern Pacific.
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