ASIA PACIFIC
Date Posted: 23-Jun-2011
Jane's Defence Weekly
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Satellite images show continued activity at North Korea's nuclear test site
Allison Puccioni Jane's Image Analyst
California
James Hardy JDW Asia-Pacific Editor
London
Key Points
• Images taken of North Korea's nuclear test site on 10 June 2011 show significant excavation since October 2010
• The images suggest that North Korea could be preparing the site for a third nuclear test following similar tests in 2006 and 2009
Satellite images provided by GeoEye show continued activity at the site of North Korea's 2006 and 2009 underground nuclear tests.
A comparison of 10 June 2011 images with those taken by DigitalGlobe on 16 October 2010 shows significantly more excavation at two sites: one just south of the test site operations base and one about 900 m east of the main base. The latter site also has three new buildings.
The 10 June GeoEye image shows 25-30 per cent more excavation extending far closer to the adjacent road. This may suggest that a tunnel is being excavated in preparation for a nuclear test.
North Korea tested nuclear devices in 2006 and 2009 in tunnels at the site, which is on the slopes of Mount Mantap-san about 42 km northwest of Kilchu, North Hamgyong province. Ahead of the 2006 test, it was reported that the North Koreans had excavated a 700 m-long horizontal tunnel under Mantap-san.
ANALYSIS
Jane's analysis of the site comes after diplomatic sources reported rumours of nuclear weapon-related activity in the past three months. Jane's reported on 10 June that satellite imagery showed no activity at two known missile test sites in North Korea; the imagery of the Kilchu site illustrates that, if there is activity, it is taking place at the nuclear test site.
Scott Snyder, director of the Center for US-Korea Policy in Washington, DC, said it was unclear what Pyongyang would gain from holding a test now.
"A new nuclear test would result in a drive to ratchet up UN sanctions and would test China's strategic commitment to North Korea," Snyder said.
"Given the poor prospects for inter-Korean relations for the foreseeable future, it is possible that the North Koreans might see heightened tensions as a vehicle for getting around South Korea and drawing new attention from the US, but this sort of strategy has proven increasingly ineffective in drawing the sort of attention that North Korea wants."
A diplomatic source told Jane's that recent weeks had seen no major changes in North Korean rhetoric, most of which referred to retaliation for propaganda balloon releases into the North by South Korean political groups and demands for the return of nine North Korean refugees who sailed into South Korean waters in mid-June.
