My latest story for Asia Times Online (Gates changes stripes on Okinawa)

Gates changes stripes on Okinawa

In sharp contrast to just over a year ago, United States Defense Secretary Robert Gates has struck a conciliatory tone over the future of the US Marine base on Okinawa, bowing to the interests of the islanders. With an increasingly hawkish military in China gaining the upper hand, the about-turn could signal the US doesn't want to crack an important alliance over a single issue.
- Kosuke Takahashi (Jan 14, '11)

I attended a joint press conference of  US Defense Secretary Robert and Japanese Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa yesterday and Gates' lecture at Keio University today.

I'd like ATol readers to read the last two paragraphs of my latest story.

Maybe China and the rest of the world can draw a judicious lesson from pre-World War II Japan. Then Japanese leaders were very confident in the early 1930s, as the nation pulled out of the Great Depression faster than other developed nations. This confidence gave the hawkish military leaders some room to take a hard line against other nations. They tended to refuse to make a concerted move with the international community. Then, the country gradually lost any leader who could exert control over the military.


After the fall of Lehman Brothers, the Chinese economy recovered much earlier than other nations, giving confidence to Chinese leaders including the military. The world might want to promote awareness about prevention of China's aggressive and unilateral actions, especially on maritime security.

Thanks and regards,
Kosuke


Gates changes stripes on Okinawa
By Kosuke Takahashi

TOKYO - In sharp contrast to his previous high-handed approach to the thorny issue of the relocation of a United States military base on Okinawa, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates made conciliatory gestures to the Japanese government and Okinawans.

Gates said on Thursday during his visit to Japan that the US administration would defer to Tokyo in solving the long-standing dispute of moving the US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma out of a densely populated area in Okinawa prefecture and consider the perceptions of the local public, who want the American forces out.

"We do understand that it is politically a complex matter in Japan," Gates said in a joint press conference with Toshimi Kitazawa, his Japanese counterpart . "And we intend to follow the lead of the Japanese government in working with the people of Okinawa to take their interests and their concerns into account, and that obviously needs to happen."

What a difference a year makes. During his last visit to Tokyo in October 2009, one month after Yukio Hatoyama's center-left Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) took the reins of government, Gates had demanded that the transfer of around 8,000 Okinawa-based Marines to the US Pacific territory of Guam would not occur unless the heliport functions of the Futenma facility were moved by 2014 to a coastal area of the marines' Camp Schwab in Nago City, northern Okinawa - as agreed in a 2006 bilateral pact for the realignment of US forces in Japan. At the time, the Japanese media denounced him as intimidating.

Hatoyama reneged on an election promise to enter negotiations with the US to move the American bases off Okinawa, and was forced to quit in June 2010.

"While issues associated with Okinawa and Futenma have tended to dominate the headlines this past year, the US-Japan defense alliance is broader, deeper and indeed richer than any single issue," Gates said on Thursday.

Japanese military analyst Toshiyuki Shikata echoed Gates' statement. "Yes, Futenma is just a one-of-them issue in the Japan-US alliance," Shikata, a professor of International Affairs at Teikyo University, told Asia Times Online. "The US knows Japan's DPJ-led administration won't be able to solve the Futenma issue any time soon, so the US does not want to make this single issue crack the bilateral alliance as a whole."

"With the Futenma base never moved out, Okinawa people will suffer most," Shikata added. "For them, it's a danger of continuing the status quo."

Training of F-15 fighters at Kadena
Still, to make the US presence less visible on Okinawa and to ease the burden on Okinawa to some extent, the two nations this time "agreed to step up the efforts to finalize" the relocation of part of aviation drills of F-15 fighters at the US Kadena Air Base in Okinawa to Guam, Kitazawa said. Despite the two defense chiefs' measured comments, Japanese media reported the two nations had already largely agreed on this issue.

Kitazawa also said the Japanese government would decide by the end of this year whether to allow sales of the US/Japanese-developed Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) Block IIA anti-ballistic missile system to other nations.

"With regard to third-party sales, I also stated that it's necessary to consider the introduction of mechanisms for consultations regarding the necessity for prior consent," Japan's defense chief said.

Mindful of the constitutional commitment to peace which has long enjoyed widespread public support in Japan, previous governments have limited arms exports in accordance with the so-called "Three Principles", which prohibit arms deals with the communist bloc, countries subject to United Nations sanctions and those involved in international conflicts.

But Kitazawa said, "As you're aware, the previous administration with regard to transition to production and deployment, that will be treated as an exception to the three principles on arms exports. The question is how to transfer that - the system - to third parties."

Gates, meanwhile, underscored the benefit of providing the joint US-Japan sea-based missile shield system to other countries, by saying, "I think it's fair to say that the minister acknowledged the economic benefit of being able to make it available."

The defense chiefs' meeting was held amid high tensions, triggered by North Korea's continued menace and China's bold move to test-fly its new Stealth fighter during Gates' visit to Beijing. He headed for Seoul on Friday.

"If there is a common theme in my visits, it is the common interest of the United States, Japan, the Republic of Korea and China for there to be stability and peace on the Korean Peninsula," he said. "This requires that the North cease its belligerent behavior and its provocations that have killed innocent victims, both military and civilian, in Korea."

Who controls the Chinese military?
Gates also stressed his visit to Beijing as successful by saying he had "constructive talks" with Chinese leaders, while maintaining a sense of vigilance against China's growing naval power.

"I believe there is the opportunity for further cooperation between the Chinese and US militaries going forward in the context of a much larger positive relationship between the United States and China," he said.

"At the same time, I explained that the United States will sustain its military presence in Northeast Asia and look to enhance it in Southeast Asia and will firmly defend the principle of freedom of navigation."

Gates saw China's recent test flight of a Stealth fighter illustrated a "disconnect" between its military and civilian leaders. He called the lack of communication between them "a worry", but he was cautions enough to add that China maintained civilian control of the military.

"I believe we've seen instances where specific events took place where the Chinese civilian leadership might not have known about them in advance," Gates said at Keio University in Tokyo on Friday before heading for Seoul.

"In the larger sense of who controls the Chinese military and who has the ultimate authority, there is no doubt in my mind that it is President Hu Jintao and the civilian leadership of that government," he said.

But most of Japanese security analysts such as Shikata, as well as Tokyo's experts on China, believe Hu is already losing his grip of the People's Liberation Army, especially when he begins to become a lame duck leader. In 2012, Hu is widely expected to hand over control of the country to Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping.

"Xi is famous as a defense bureaucrat," Shikata said. "To kick out political foes, he has used the military support. He is an advocate for the military. Behind the curtain is a former president, Jiang Zemin, who backs up Xi."

Maybe China and the rest of the world can draw a judicious lesson from pre-World War II Japan. Then Japanese leaders were very confident in the early 1930s, as the nation pulled out of the Great Depression faster than other developed nations. This confidence gave the hawkish military leaders some room to take a hard line against other nations. They tended to refuse to make a concerted move with the international community. Then, the country gradually lost any leader who could exert control over the military.


After the fall of Lehman Brothers, the Chinese economy recovered much earlier than other nations, giving confidence to Chinese leaders including the military. The world might want to promote awareness about prevention of China's aggressive and unilateral actions, especially on maritime security.

Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based journalist.

(Copyright 2011 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

My latest story for Asia Times Online (Testing times for Japan-South Korea ties)

Here is my latest story for Asia Times Online. I am sure that 2011 will mark a new stage in Japan-South Korea relations. Cheers, Kosuke

Testing times for Japan-South Korea ties


By Kosuke Takahashi

TOKYO - Spooked by the continued menace of North Korea and the territorial belligerence of China, Japan and South Korea are planning to sign pacts on supply exchanges and security intelligence - their first-ever military agreements.

Japanese Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa, who landed in Seoul on Monday, has agreed with his new counterpart Kim Kwan-jin to start talks on two separate agreements. While one will facilitate exchanges of military goods and services, the other will boost shared intelligence on North Korea's nuclear weapons, missiles and weapons of mass destruction.

Kitazawa's trip to South Korea is the first in six years for a Japanese defense minister. The visit reflects a warming of relations between the two nations, as shown by each other's participation in joint military exercises with the United States last year, with Japan taking part as an observer.

Kitazawa's proposal to Seoul is in line with Japan's long-term strategy. Japan’s defense policy for the next decade, approved by the cabinet of Prime Minister Naoto Kan last month, calls for closer cooperation on defense with countries such as South Korea, Australia, Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries and India. The plan is to forge multi-layered security cooperation with the international community, a move apparently aimed at countering China's growing power and the North Korean threat.

The Japanese defense minister has proposed two separate agreements. The first is the Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA), which other countries refer to as the Military Logistics Supporting Agreement (MLSA). For constitutional reasons, Japan avoids using the word "military".

This agreement concerns exchanges of military goods and services such as food, water, fuel and transportation during international peacetime cooperative operations such as peacekeeping and disaster rescue efforts.

South Korea has MLSA agreements with eight nations, such as the US, Turkey, Thailand and the Philippines. Reportedly, it plans to expand the number to 15 by 2012. Japan concluded ACSAs with the US in 1996 and Australia in 2010.

The second agreement on the table is the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA), which facilitates shared intelligence on North Korea's nuclear weapons, missiles and weapons of mass destruction.

Japan currently operates three spy satellites that monitor North Korea's military facilities. If the accord is reached, Seoul may benefit from these. Once a fourth satellite goes into orbit in the coming year, Japan will be able to monitor the entire Korean Peninsula at least once every 24 hours.

If signed, the pacts could open a new chapter in Japan’s relations with its former colony - Tokyo ruled the Korean peninsula from 1910 to 1945.

Media in each country has taken note of the improving relations. South Korea’s Maeil Business Newspaper reported earlier this year that Japan's foreign minister, Seiji Maehara, has proposed that the two nations forge a "security alliance".

The Korea Times has reported that South Korea plans to sign at least one of the military agreements by the end of this year, citing an anonymous senior official at the Ministry of National Defense. Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper also reported the two countries were preparing a new Japan-Republic of Korea Joint Declaration, with the aim of signing it when President Lee Myung-bak visits Japan as a state guest in the first half of this year.

The two nations signed a similar declaration in 1998 expressing their shared determination to build a new partnership. But it omitted any mention of possible future military cooperation, an issue that was taboo topics in both countries at the time.

The US behind the curtain
As is often the case with regional affairs in North East Asia, behind the curtain of the recent developments between Japan and South Korea is the United States.

In December, Navy Admiral Mike Mullen, the US chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, stressed the significance of trilateral cooperation between the US, Japan and South Korea at a press conference in Tokyo, saying he sees a "real sense of urgency" in light of rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Mullen was visiting Japan for the first time since North Korea's shelling of a South Korean island on November 23, which killed two troops and two civilians.

He also noted the importance of the three countries taking part in joint military drills."I would like to see all of us do as much as we can regionally and certainly exercising together is a big part of that." He also appealed for a more active role from Tokyo at a crucial time when "steps must be taken to ensure" that war-mongering from North Korea is stopped.

"Although there are separate security alliances between the US and Japan, and the US and South Korea, there is no alliance between Japan and South Korea," Japanese military analyst Toshiyuki Shikata told Asia Times Online. "In a sense, Japan and South Korea indirectly cooperate with each other via the US currently. If the two nations directly work together, this would reduce the US burden. That's pretty good news for the US."

While the two governments, especially their defense officials, are willing to strengthen military ties, ethnic nationalist sentiment on the South Korean side is a key factor.

Among older Koreans, the memories of Japan's colonization are still raw, and territorial disputes over a group of islands - called Tokdo by Koreans and Takeshima by Japanese - are still simmering.

Seoul has been concerned over a resurgence of Japanese military power since the end of World War II, and now is no different. South Korean newspaper JoongAng Ilbo said in its January 5 editorial, "Many people also worry that Japan is seeking to use the tension on the peninsula stemming from the North's sinking of the Cheonan warship and its bombardment of Yeonpyeong Island as an opportunity to bolster its military power in the region."

Japan has taken note of the nationalism issue, with Foreign Minister Maehara saying on January 4 said Tokyo will need to be “sensitive” when improving security ties with South Korea.

China in a corner?
South Korea is also mindful that military cooperation with Japan could impact negatively on bilateral relations with China, Seoul's largest trading partner. Closer military ties between Tokyo and Seoul could force an already unhappy China into a corner, with Beijing further strengthening ties with North Korea as a result. China last year repeatedly voiced concern over a US-South Korea military drill, and the Japanese Self-Defense Forces took part in July for the first time as an observer.

South Korean newspaper JoongAng Ilbo's editorial said more solid Japan-South Korea military ties could "stimulate China to pursue a foreign policy that leads to a Cold War-like atmosphere of confrontation in Northeast Asia".

Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based journalist.

(Copyright 2011 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)